With the final polls my final analysis of the Israeli Election :
15% of sample polls still unsure who to vote for that means 15-17 seats up for grabs – seeing as that there is a 10 seat swing needed to go from right to left to change PM it is unlikely but could dramatically change the coalition.
Bibi might end up as PM but he has lost this election campaign – he ran under the slogan a strong leader and he comes in to the next government as a far weaker man. His coalition (Likud-Beytanu) looks to lose 10 seats, his favorite figures in his own party did not enter high enough on his list and he is shackled by those who have fought against him within.
Biggest winner hands down is Bennett – taking the NRP and settler right and making it fashionable – 50% of his votes are coming from under 30 year olds and by getting so many seats he is an essential coalition partner if the center left would want to block Bibi and not relay on Arab party votes. His biggest challenge if he gets the housing ministry (one of his top priorities and puts him in direct competition with Shas) is to please both the settler right (Tekuma is in his list) and the under 30’s who want more affordable housing within 67 Israel.
Smaller parties are doing better with no obvious challenger to Bibi – Meretz is looking to double in strength and Eretz Hadasha and Am Shalem look to be picking up a seat or two as well. Kadima might survive, but at this point who cares.
The destruction of the center left has been awful to watch as they eat each other. Livni has done worst followed by shelly with Lapid holding his own at 10-12 seats. His big competition is Shas as he has made his campaign about sharing the burden, if he finishes ahead then he will be happy.
Shelly has run a campaign that has allowed even the left to forget about security. This leaving of the diplomatic realm by all parties bar Livni and Meretz has allowed Bennett to go branded as the new face of Israel without dealing with the reality of his positions. Rather then own the failures of Oslo she has ignored them, been silent on the settlers (who will never vote for her anyway) and as a result has lost at least three seats to Meretz and possibly a bunch more to Livni. With Mitzna leaving her, she has no credible defense minister and this makes her not look like a serious challenger.
Lastly we have Shas that has had an awful campaign coupled with the illness of Ovadia Yosef. Though they wanted to do a compassionate campaign to appeal to all of the poor, their racism against Russians and migrant workers was on full show and they will finish having attacked every possible coalition partner. They know they are a fundamental part of the right blocks calculations but have managed to piss off the huge swaths of Israel with their campaign. Despite this they are going to end up between 10-12 seats.
Amongst the Arab sector the big question is will there by a 50% turn out (in 2009 53%) or will there be a democratic deficit that will allow those who boycott Israel to claim their are the real representatives of the Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Fun story of campaign has been Da’am the joint jewish-arab workers party that has captured the minds of many within the Left.
In terms of coalitions its always hard to say – those who think that Bibi will go with religious and right block think that the government will only last 2 years and then we are back to the polls. To others who can see a Livni, Lapid Bibi, Bennett and possible Shas, UJT coalition the figures on election night will matter and the degree that Bibi has flexibility to offer the ministries he wants to is going to be severely limited.